MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Somalia’s President Hassan Sheikh and Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre have embraced a course of conflict and bloodshed in a bid to resolve their rift with Jubaland leader Ahmed Madobe, who was re-elected to a contentious third term in Monday’s election—deemed “unconstitutional” by Mogadishu authorities.
Villa Somalia has mobilized thousands of troops across two fronts in the Gedo and Lower Juba regions, clearly signaling a full-scale and deliberate effort to oust Ahmed Madobe from power. This military escalation comes despite Mogadishu’s public assurances that it is not pursuing war, a calculated move to placate international partners and regional communities increasingly concerned about the prospect of renewed internal conflict.
The situation escalated further on Tuesday when seven planeloads of troops arrived in Raskamboni, prompting an inevitable retaliation from rival forces. While the exact number of casualties remains unconfirmed, the escalation underscores the growing intensity of the conflict.
Mogadishu aims to seize all towns controlled by Madobe in the Gedo and Lower Juba regions, with the exception of Kismayo, where the Jubaland leader’s fortified stronghold makes direct confrontation too costly. Yet, the pressing question remains: can the Somali government capture these other towns without facing significant resistance? This is a query that any prudent observer would ask.
This is not the first time Madobe has secured power through a dubious indirect election. In 2019, however, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud not only congratulated Madobe but also attended his inauguration, despite being prevented from boarding a plane to Kismayo by the administration of then-President Mohamed Abdullahi Farmajo, who vehemently opposed Madobe and rejected the election results as illegitimate.
At the time, the current Somali Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre played a pivotal role in the election of Ahmed Madobe, handpicking candidates at Madobe’s request—individuals who, devoid of any ambition for office, were motivated solely by money or other promises, ensuring a seamless and uncontested return to power for the Jubaland leader.
What has changed now that was not wrong in 2019? Madobe orchestrated the same controversial election, which President Mohamud congratulated, with Prime Minister Barre playing a central role in its execution. This hypocrisy reflects a troubling pattern among Somali politicians, who support wrongdoing when it serves their interests but oppose it when it works against them—an approach that contradicts both Islamic principles and the values of civilized society.
If Ahmed Madobe was considered a legitimate leader in 2019 despite the controversial election, then by the same standard, he remains a legitimate president in 2024. In fact, he is arguably a more credible leader than those in Galmudug, Hirshabelle, and Southwest, who continue to hold power through unconstitutional term extensions, rather than by legal.
From another perspective, has Somalia ever held an election free of corruption in the past three decades of conflict? President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud himself was elected in 2022 through what is widely regarded as the most corrupt election in Somalia’s history. While his process, unlike Madobe’s, involved some level of contest, the scale of bribery was unprecedented, with Mohamud securing victory by paying the highest bribes to MPs. Given this, can a president chosen through such questionable means legitimately lecture others on what is right or wrong, or constitutional versus unconstitutional?
Since assuming office, President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has reportedly sold off nearly all public lands, displacing impoverished families, with the proceeds allegedly funneled into his personal accounts, none of which reached the central bank. Furthermore, he has altered constitutional clauses to further his own interests, using bribery and promises of lucrative positions to secure the support of MPs—many of whom have since seen their promises fulfilled.
Given the track record of Somalia’s politicians, who have consistently failed to uphold good governance or adhere to the principles of law and public interest, who now has the authority to dictate what is right or wrong? Driven solely by personal interests, their relentless pursuit of power and wealth undermines the prospects for genuine, effective governance—suggesting that true and strong leadership cannot emerge from such a corrupt and self-serving system.
With a history marked by all the wrong traits, it was unthinkable that President Mohamud would resort to bloody conflict to resolve disputes with regional states, particularly Jubaland—especially after he vocally condemned such tactics during Farmajo’s administration. Listening to his speeches from 2019 to 2022, one cannot help but note the stark contradiction in his current actions. It is a shameful irony when a leader fails to uphold the principles he once preached, repeating the very mistakes he condemned in his predecessor.
A bloody conflict with Jubaland would not only displace thousands of Somalis to neighboring Kenya, potentially triggering a humanitarian disaster worse than the 2011 drought, but it would also undo nearly two decades of state-building progress. Such a conflict would deepen clan rivalries in the region, further destabilizing an already fragile society and setting back the prospects for lasting peace and unity in Somalia.
It is a stark reality that no politician or clan in Somalia has ever been ousted militarily by another. While Madobe may lack the support of many Jubaland communities—marginalizing some—he undeniably commands the loyalty of his Ogaden clan. In this context, he could easily portray the conflict as an invasion by President Mohamud’s Hawiye clan, inciting a return to civil war and clan-based hostilities. Such a scenario would ensnare Mohamud in a perilous quagmire, rendering him incapable of advancing or retreating, while further deepening the nation’s fragile divisions.
Dialogue must remain the only viable path to resolve the Jubaland crisis. If President Mohamud expects Madobe to act justly, he must first demonstrate the right course of action and prove that Madobe is the sole party in the wrong. If President Mohamud insists that Madobe hold popular elections, he must lead by example and ensure that fair elections are held in 2026. It is then that Madobe will either fulfill the public’s demands or face the consequences of failing to do so. Somalia cannot afford another bloody conflict, particularly one that diverts attention from the ongoing war with Al-Shabaab, which the current leadership has yet to effectively negotiate or defeat, a standoff that has already cost the lives of thousands of young Somalis since 2022.
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