MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Al-Shabaab militants are closing in on the strategic town of Mahas in central Somalia’s Hiran region, a critical flashpoint in the country’s faltering counter-insurgency campaign. The town, once a symbol of the Somali government’s 2022 offensive and a key mobilization point, is now under imminent threat as insurgents press forward from multiple fronts.
According to local sources and security analysts, Al-Shabaab fighters are advancing from Wabho in Galgadud region to the north, as well as from Moqokori and Habino, capturing a string of villages along the way. These advances mark a strategic push toward Mahas, a town that has long served as a launchpad for joint government and clan militia operations against the militant group.
Mahas fell out of Al-Shabaab’s hands over a decade ago following an Ethiopian military offensive. Since then, the town had remained under the protection of Ethiopian forces. However, their withdrawal in late 2024—part of the broader African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) drawdown—has left the town increasingly vulnerable.
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The militant advance follows the dramatic fall of Moqokori town earlier last month, a key blow that significantly undermined government and allied clan militia defenses in the region. With resistance crumbling, Al-Shabaab has been able to retake vast areas once liberated by Somali forces during the height of the 2022 offensive.
In Mahas, local officials and medical personnel have begun evacuating equipment from the town’s newly built hospital to prevent it from falling into militant hands. Meanwhile, arms and ammunition stockpiles—reportedly supplied by Ethiopian forces to bolster local defense efforts—have been diverted and are now being sold at discounted prices in Baladweyne, the administrative capital of Hiran region.
Security analysts say Al-Shabaab has reversed more than 90% of the gains made during the 2022–2023 Somali-led offensive, which had pushed militants out of hundreds of towns and villages across central Somalia. Most of those liberated areas have since been retaken by the group in a sweeping resurgence.
The potential fall of Mahas is seen as a pivotal moment that could pave the way for Al-Shabaab to target other key towns long beyond their reach, including Guriel and Dhusamareb in Galgadud region. These towns, considered strongholds of government troops and allied militias, have remained relatively secure but are now increasingly at risk.
The threat is not confined to central Somalia. Around the capital, Mogadishu, Al-Shabaab has maintained a silent siege holding positions just 30–40 kilometers from the city in several directions. To the north, they remain active near Bal’ad, while to the northwest and southeast, they have entrenched themselves in rural strongholds. On Friday, militants briefly retook the town of Sabid, 40 kilometers southwest of the capital, before reportedly withdrawing—highlighting the volatility of the situation.
In response, Somali forces and African Union troops are attempting to secure the southwestern corridor to Mogadishu, focusing on three key towns with strategic river crossings: Sabid, Awdhegle, and Barire—all seized by militants during a rapid offensive in March.
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