Analysis: Could Turkish helicopter gunships shift the balance in Somalia’s war on Al-Shabaab? 

Rashid Abdi, Nairobi-based Horn of Africa analyst at Sahan Research

Deployment of three Turkish T129 helicopter gunships to Mogadishu significantly boosts Somali army fire power.

Analysts, however, divided on whether it can significantly change combat dynamics.

Increased airstrikes will likely force AS to move away from mechanised, fixed/static troop concentration to highly mobile and dispersed small warfare tactics.

It is almost certain AS will move into built-up urban areas and civilian populations in the face of escalated aerial strikes. Put differently, increased aerial strikes may quicken the pace of AS ‘consolidation’ and take over of towns and cities.