MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Ethiopia is ruling out plans to deploy troops to the Middle Shabelle region in southern Somalia, despite a mounting Al-Shabaab offensive that has brought the extremist group perilously close to Mogadishu.
Ethiopian military forces have been intensifying their airstrikes against Al-Shabaab positions, but their reluctance to commit ground forces to the frontlines has raised questions about their strategic interests in the region, especially given the expected deployment of Egyptian special forces.
The Middle Shabelle region, which lies just to the north of Somalia’s capital, is set to be bolstered by a 1,500-strong contingent of Egyptian troops, who are expected to provide heavy firepower with the use of helicopter gunships. This planned deployment has prompted Al-Shabaab to advance rapidly towards Mogadishu, seeking to establish a stronger foothold before Egypt’s air assets can arrive in June. Analysts suggest that Ethiopia’s hesitation to directly intervene on the ground could be influenced by its longstanding rivalry with Egypt.
Rashid Abdi, a Horn of Africa expert at Sahan Research, posed a pertinent question: “Why would they clear Shabelle for Egypt, a strategic foe?” Abdi’s comment reflects concerns that Ethiopia may be reluctant to facilitate Egyptian military gains in the region, especially as Cairo’s involvement could shift the regional balance of power.
Al-Shabaab forces, which have already reached positions just 10 kilometers from Mogadishu, were seen establishing checkpoints and inspecting vehicles in the area. Despite the proximity of the militants, the capital remains calm for now, with no widespread panic reported. However, the looming threat of an Al-Shabaab takeover has led to a palpable shift in public sentiment. As Abdi tweeted, “There is definitely a psychological shift: people becoming resigned to the prospect of an Al-Shabaab takeover,” citing observers.
With the capital teetering on the edge of uncertainty, the evolving situation in Middle Shabelle highlights the complex geopolitical calculations influencing military decisions in the Horn of Africa.
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