MOGADISHU (Somaliguardian) – Reports of planned deployment of Egyptian troops along the border between Somalia and Ethiopia have sparked tensions as pro-Ethiopian officials with the country’s federal member states oppose Cairo’s attempt to gain a foothold in the territory under their control.
Egypt has recently promised to join AUSSOM, a new African Union peacekeeping mission in Somalia.
The backdrop to this move is Somalia’s decision to expel Ethiopian forces following accusations that Addis Ababa has compromised Somali sovereignty and territorial integrity by negotiating a sea access agreement with Somaliland, a separatist region in northern Somalia. The situation is fraught with geopolitical complexities, as Egypt’s involvement could further strain relations in a region already marked by intricate diplomatic rifts.
Ethiopia-backed officials in southern Somalia’s Gedo region said last week that they would not accept the rumored deployment of Egyptian forces in their territory, emphasizing that such a move could undermine their long-standing relations with Addis Ababa.
On Saturday, elders of Hawadle clan in Ferfer, a town in Hiran region bordering Ethiopia, expressed a strong opposition to Egypt gaining a military presence in their area. Along with members of Hiran State, they voiced concerns that the deployment could trigger a conflict between Cairo and Addis Ababa, heightening regional tensions and drawing their community into a potentially dangerous crossfire.
“We will not accept to be cannon fodder in another conflict,” declared the elders of the Hawadle clan.
“We are already grappling with the severe consequences of the ongoing fight against Al-Shabaab. We refuse to be dragged into a conflict that is not of our making,” they added.
Jubaland and Southwest authorities previously voiced a strong opposition to statements made by the Somali National National Security Advisor asserting that no Ethiopian soldiers will remain in the country beyond their mandate’s expiration in December if Addis Ababa fails to retract its agreement with Somaliland.
Somali regional states, which have relied on Ethiopian troops for their security, are deeply concerned about the potential repercussions of an Egyptian-led security takeover. They fear that without the protective presence of Ethiopian forces, they could be vulnerable to attacks from Al-Shabaab, the militant group that has long posed a threat in the region.
Additionally, these states worry that if Egyptian forces replace the Ethiopians, they might face increased influence from the federal government in Mogadishu, with which they have longstanding disputes.
State leaders are particularly concerned that the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud could exploit the shift in security dynamics to its advantage by targeting regional leaders it views as adversaries and installing handpicked allies who are more compliant.
With Egyptian forces potentially taking over from Ethiopian troops, Mogadishu might also find an opportunity to consolidate its control over the regions and diminish Ethiopian influence, which it perceives as a challenge to its authority. The federal government could leverage Egypt’s presence to bolster its position and implement a more centralized governance model, further marginalizing regional leaders and altering the power balance in the country to suit its own strategic interests.
Supporters of Villa Somalia argue that an Egyptian presence in Somalia could bolster the country’s sovereignty and act as a countermeasure against what they perceive as Ethiopian annexation plans. However, regional states view this development with deep apprehension, fearing that Somalia might become a battleground for Cairo’s geopolitical interests, especially given the ongoing and contentious dispute between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD).
The uncertainty surrounding the security landscape after the potential shift in forces underscores the complexity of the situation, leaving many to question how the balance of power and regional stability will be affected by these evolving dynamics.
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